SSA officials evaluate the combined impact of the redesigned early
retirement program and other factors during both their annual
assessment and strategic planning cycles. At the end of each fiscal
year, SSA measures the number of actual retirements, compares it to
the previously projected number, and considers how these numbers
affect the future retirement wave. SSA also updates its retirement
wave study triannually.[B] Based on results from the annual and
triannual studies, SSA determines possible strategies for managing the
projected retirement wave, including again offering voluntary
retirements. If it decides to offer additional voluntary retirements,
SSA presents a business case to OPM demonstrating its need for early
retirement authority. However, SSA officials have found that personal
considerations, legislative changes in retirement systems, economic
conditions, and other factors contribute to an employee’s decision to
retire. Because of the variety and significance of these factors, SSA
has concluded that it cannot clearly identify a cause-and-effect
relationship between its retirement incentives and actual retirements.