[End of figure]

Scenario planning is an approach that agencies have used to manage
risks of planning for future human capital needs in a changing
environment. As discussed in our April 2003 report on agencies' efforts
to integrate human capital strategies with their mission-oriented
efforts,[Footnote 14] scenarios can describe different future
environments that agencies may face. For example, after the terrorist
attacks of September 11, 2001, and during the creation and
implementation of DHS, senior U.S. Coast Guard officials reexamined
five long-term scenarios developed in 1999 to describe different
environments that could exist in the year 2020. In 1999, these
scenarios had been the basis for agency leaders and planners to create
operational and human capital strategies that they thought would work
well for the U.S. Coast Guard in each independent scenario. After
September 11, 2001, agency officials reviewed the scenarios to
determine whether additional scenarios were needed in light of the
attacks and decided to (1) create new long-term scenarios to guide
planning beyond 2005 and (2) generate two scenarios with an 18-month
horizon to guide short-term operational and human capital planning.
Similarly, to prepare its 2002 strategic workforce plan, PBGC used
scenario analysis to determine how the scope and volume of its
activities might change in the next 5 years. The strategic workforce
plans these organizations developed identify gaps in workforce skills
or competencies that they need to fill to meet the likely scenarios
rather than planning to meet the needs of a single view of the future.
U.S. Coast Guard and PBGC managers believe that by using multiple
scenarios they gain flexibility in determining future workforce
requirements.