Industry analysis is the study of industry groupings including an examination of the competitive position of a particular industry in relation to other industries. The intent is to identify companies that show particular promise within an industry. These analyses are affected by demographic and social changes. An integral part of any industry analysis will be to determine the industry's stage in its growth cycle. Additionally, it is important to bear in mind that governments can impact an industry and its future prospects through regulations, deregulation, taxes and subsidies.
Like people, industries and companies tend to go through predictable stages. Understanding where an industry is located in its life-cycle will enable the investor to make better investment decisions, since different types of valuation methods are used for companies in different stages of maturity. Additionally, the stage of the life cycle has a tremendous impact upon business risk.
Stages or phases of the industry life cycle
1. The developmental or formative stage.
- This stage is often driven by entrepreneurial and innovative focus.
- The industry sales and earnings are usually small or possibly negative.
- Growth prospects are high.
- Competition tends to increase during the progression of this phase as other entrepreneurs recognize the market potential.
- High risks exist in this stage since there is uncertainty as to whether or not consumers will widely accept the product, and which firms will survive.
- Venture capitalists are often active during this stage.
2. The expansion or growth stage.
- This stage is characterized by rapid growth of both unit sales and profits.
- Market leaders tend to emerge due to consolidation and shakeout of weak competitors.
- Consumer acceptance broadens the market as the leaders improve the product.
- Risk in this stage declines due to increased consumer acceptance and customer loyalty starts to build.
- Companies tend to start to go public with initial public offerings (IPO).
- Companies tend to reinvest earnings therefore, little or no dividends are paid to investors, but return on equity (ROE) tends to be high.
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